Revisiting natural resources volatility via TGARCH and EGARCH

The natural resources commodity price volatility is one of the leading discussion issues, particularly in global issues. For instance, the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic have created uncertainties in global economic and financial markets. During the said events, the global economy disrupts the demand and supply chain of raw materials, natural resources, and energy across the globe, which is among the leading issues of price volatility in natural resources. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the volatility of natural resources, especially during these two periods. The current study, unlike previous studies, evaluates the volatility in crude oil prices while using the extended period from 2007 to 11-01 to 2020-11-16 from a global perspective. The empirical analyses are examined using exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and the threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity methods. The estimated results of both approaches indicate the existence of volatility in natural resource commodity prices. Yet, the global financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic periods exhibit higher volatilities than the rest of the overall period. Comparatively, natural resources commodity price volatility in the Covid-19 pandemic surpasses the volatility than that of the global financial crisis. This study provides relevant policy implications regarding global volatility management based on the empirical results. The study further provides guidelines for future research on the same area and limitations indorded in this study.

Natural resources commodity prices volatility: Evidence from COVID-19 for the US economy

Volatility in natural resources commodity prices is prevailing for a longer period. However, after the Covid-19 pandemic, most economical and financial markets were affected, and the natural resources commodity market was greatly affected. Besides, the pandemic's closing or postponement of the industrial sector further fuels uncertainty in the natural resources commodity market. Therefore, it is important to analyze whether volatility exists in natural resources commodity prices during the pandemic period? In this regard, the current study investigated price volatility in copper and crude oil prices during the Covid-19 while using the most recent and extended dataset from January 02, 2019, to October 08, 2021, in the case of the US. For empirical examination, this study used the breakpoint unit root test, which illustrates that the leveled data is non-stationary while the first differenced data is stationary, where both leveled and first differenced data demonstrate the breakpoints in time series. This study uses the threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (TGARCH) and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) to analyze natural resource commodity price volatility. The empirical findings uncover that both variables are volatile during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the negative shock of the Covid-19 pandemic makes the crude oil price more volatile relative to copper prices. Besides, the previous variances are also positively associated with the current variances of both variables. The findings also reveal that copper could be a safe haven for reducing volatility in natural resources. Based on the empirical findings, this study suggests ensuring macroeconomic stability and reconsidering the traditional price-fixing or price ceiling policies to tackle volatility in the Covid-19 pandemic.

Does more stringencies in government policies during pandemic impact stock returns? Fresh evidence from GREF countries, a new emerging green bloc.

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the government economic policies in addition to the more stringent Covid-19 policies on stock index returns of GREF countries, that is, a new economic bloc of 5 countries (Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Russia, and China) to foster for sustainable development of the region. Using the Panel, ARDL model and data for index returns and economic and Covid-19 control policies for the period March 1, 2020-June 30, 2021, results show that Income support, workplace closure, stringency index, and cancellation of public events have a significant positive impact on the stock index returns over the long run. In contrast, school closure, restriction on public gatherings, and international travel control policies negatively impact stock returns. In comparison, Debt policies, Covid-19 testing policies, health index, and face-covering policies remain insignificant. In the short run, stringent index and face-covering policies remain positively significant. Results of the study suggest significant policy implications that can help reform economic and Covid-19 control policies and promote the region's economic growth over the long-run period.

COVID-19 Pandemic-Related Childhood BMI Increases in China: A Health Surveillance-Based Ambispective Cohort Analysis (preprint)

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has influenced all aspects of our life since the outbreak in December 2019. The pandemic-related body mass index z-score (zBMI) and obesity prevalence changes in children have not been clearly elucidated, especially in China. Methods: Based on the Health Promotion Program for Children and Adolescents in Suzhou of China, a total of 72,175 children aged 8-12 years with complete data for four consecutive years (2017-2020), were included. zBMI and obesity prevalence were calculated. Multiple mixed linear models were used to compare the yearly changes in zBMI before (2017-2019) and during (2019-2020) the pandemic. Finding: The prevalence of obesity slightly increased from 12·29% to 13·28% from 2017 to 2019, but substantially elevated to 15·29% in 2020. The mean [95% Confidence Interval (CI)] of yearly change in zBMI before and during the pandemic were 0 ·039 (0·037, 0·042) and 0·131 (0·125, 0·138), respectively; it yielded a statistically meaningful elevation of 0·092 (95% CI: 0·087, 0·096). Meanwhile, the acceleration of zBMI change in 2019-2020 compared to pre-pandemic were more obvious in boys than in girls. Interpretation: Compared to 2017-2019, zBMI and prevalence of obesity accelerated among Chinese children during the COVID-19 pandemic. Currently, there is an urgent need to formulate effective public health policies to reduce the risk of childhood obesity resulting from the pandemic. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant: 81602911), Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD), and Gusu Health Talents Program Training Project in Suzhou, China (GSWS2020100).Declaration of Interest: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.Ethical Approval: This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Suzhou Center for Disease Prevention and Control (No. SZJK2020-XW001).

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators

The COVID-19 pandemic and induced economic and social constraints have significantly impacted the confidence of both consumers and businesses. Despite that, comprehensive studies of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the consumer and business sentiment are still lacking. Thus, in our research we aim to identify consumer and business confidence indicators’ reaction to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Eurozone, the United States, and China. For this purpose, we used the method of correlation–regression analysis. We chose the consumer-confidence index, manufacturing purchasing manager’s index, and services purchasing manager’s index as dependent variables;and the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, the number of deaths caused by COVID-19, and the mortality rate of COVID-19 infections as independent variables. The results showed a relatively rapid and robust effect of COVID-19 in the short period, but longer-term results depended on the region and were not so unambiguous: in the case of the Eurozone, the spread of COVID-19 pandemic did not affect the consumer-confidence index (CCI) or, in the cases of the United States and China, affected this index negatively;the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in the services sector was significantly negatively affected by the mortality risk of COVID-19 infection;and the impact on the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in the manufacturing industry appeared to be mixed.

Self-efficacy and mental health problems during COVID-19 pandemic: A multiple mediation model based on the Health Belief Model.

Confronting COVID-19 pandemic, one's health belief and behavior are essential to mental well-being. Thus conceived, this study applied the Health Belief Model to test the mediating effect of risk perception and coping strategies on the relationship between self-efficacy and mental health problems. Six hundred and eighteen participants aged 17-52 (117 males and 501 females) completed our web-based survey from February 7 to April 10, 2020. 12.6-15.1% of participants were affected by COVID-19 outbreak in varying degrees. The mediating effects of risk perception and active coping were significant, so was the serial mediating effect of risk perception and passive coping. Individuals with higher general self-efficacy were more likely to have lower risk perception, less passive coping strategies, more active coping strategies, and subsequently had less mental health problems. In conclusion, application of the HBM would help understand how mental health problems happen during an infectious disease epidemic, and the relationships among the HBM constructs need further investigation.

Weaving public health and safety nets to respond the COVID-19 pandemic.

How do governments take strategic actions in weaving public health and safety nets to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic? Embracing Moore's strategic action framework, this study investigates how municipal governments can configure authorizing environment-operational capacity-public value attributes to weave public health and safety nets, in order to prevent and control the public health and safety emergency. Leveraging fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) with a sample of 323 Chinese cities, we identify a distinctive taxonomy of four equally effective configurations of urban actions in blocking COVID-19 transmission: social reassurance, proactive defence, decisive resiliency, and strengthened coercion. Overall, this study provides a novel insight of public health and safety management into battles against COVID-19 in human society.

Traditional Chinese medicine syndrome differentiation of coronavirus disease 2019 patients

Objective To explore the rule of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) syndrome differentiation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Methods The symptoms of 756 cases with COVID-19 in Guanggu Branch of Maternity and Child Healthcare Hospital of Hubei Province were collected by cross sectional survey. The incidence rates of the symptoms were recorded by frequency method at different courses of the disease: prodromal stage (onset), middle stage (7-30 days), and later stage (>30 days). The common symptoms (incidence rate>5.0%) were analyzed by systematic clustering. With expert experience, the rule of TCM syndrome differentiation of COVID-19 patients was summarized. Results Fever (52.25%, 395 cases), cough (43.25%, 327 cases), asthenia (27.25%, 206 cases), chest distress (26.72%, 202 cases), asthma (17.59%, 133 cases) and expectoration (5.03%, 38 cases) were the most common symptoms in the prodromal stage (756 cases) of the disease, which were clustered into one category except expectoration, indicating the pathogenesis of both lung and body surface suppressed by dampness. In the middle stage (383 cases), the 19 common symptoms including greasy fur (64.49%, 247 cases), yellow fur (43.86%, 168 cases), thick fur (40.21%, 154 cases), cough (34.73%, 133 cases), red tongue (32.38%, 124 cases), poor stool (25.85%, 99 cases), asthma (25.33%, 97 cases), asthenia (25.07%, 96 cases), poor appetite (23.76%, 91 cases), bitterness of mouth (14.36%, 55 cases), dry fur (12.01%, 46 cases), purple tongue (12.01%, 46 cases), perspiration (11.49%, 44 cases), constipation (10.18%, 39 cases), white phlegm (8.62%, 33 cases), insomnia (7.31%, 28 cases), nausea (7.05%, 27 cases), diarrhea (6.79%, 26 cases) and yellow phlegm (6.27%, 24 cases), were clustered into three groups, indicating the pathogenesis of damp-heat accumulation, obstruction of lung and spleen by dampness, and dryness due to dampness-heat. In the later stage (373 cases), the 13 common symptoms including greasy fur (50.94%, 190 cases), asthenia (39.41%, 147 cases), cough (37.80%, 141 cases), red tongue (33.78%, 126 cases), asthma (32.17%, 120 cases), perspiration (23.86%, 89 cases), dry mouth (22.79%, 85 cases), poor appetite (20.11%, 75 cases), poor stool (19.30%, 72 cases), bitterness of mouth (15.01%, 56 cases), white phlegm (10.72%, 40 cases), palpitation (8.31%, 31 cases) and little fur (8.04%, 30 cases), were clustered into two groups, indicating the pathogenesis of deficiency of Qi and Yin with residual dampness, and deficiency of lung Qi and spleen Qi with residual dampness. Conclusion The TCM syndromes of COVID-19 patients in different stages have its own typical characteristics, with a regular change from exterior to interior, from dampness to dampness-heat and from excess to deficiency..

Healthcare workers' stress when caring for COVID-19 patients: An altruistic perspective.

BACKGROUND: When the contagious COVID-19 spread worldwide, the frontline staff faced unprecedented excessive work pressure and expectations of all of the society. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to explore healthcare workers' stress and influencing factors when caring for COVID-19 patients from an altruistic perspective. METHODS: A cross-sectional, descriptive study was conducted in a tertiary hospital during the outbreak of COVID-19 between February and March 2020 in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province in China. Data were collected from 1208 healthcare workers. Descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression were used to analyze the data. ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS: Research ethics approval (with the code of TJ-IRB20200379) was obtained from Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology. Written informed consent was also received from participants. RESULTS: Less than 60% of participants chose moderate or severe stress on all stressors, indicating a low stress level among healthcare workers. The main source of stress among frontline healthcare workers caring for COVID-19 patients came from the fear of being infected, the fear of family members being infected, and the discomfort caused by protective equipment. Frontline staff who were nurses, were married, and had worked more than 20 days suffered higher stress, whereas rescue staff showed lower stress. CONCLUSION: The healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19 had low stress level, although they still had the fear of being infected or uncomfortable feeling caused by personal protective equipment. A low stress level among healthcare workers indicated their professional devotion and altruism during COVID-19 epidemic. Medical institutions and the government should continue to strengthen infection prevention measures and provide more comprehensive care involving families of frontline healthcare workers, especially nurses and married staff. It will be a lesson to other countries that awaking healthcare workers' inside motivation and providing necessary support from government and society were significant.

Emergency management of nursing human resources and supplies to respond to coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic.

OBJECTIVE: To introduce the emergency management of nursing human resources and supplies of a large general hospital when facing the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19). METHOD: The Nursing Department of the hospital fully executed its functional authority to establish a three-level echelon of sustainable support, allocate human recourses dynamically, organize pre-service training, supervise the key working steps, formulate positive incentive methods, and deploy medical supplies scientifically. RESULT: By taking these strategies, the hospital effectively improved the coping capacity of the nursing team and played a positive role in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. CONCLUSION: The emergency management of nursing human resources and material resources for COVID-19 of the hospital is successful. But several deficiencies were identified as well, which indicated that the hospital needs to establish an efficient emergency management system, and pay attention to the practice of nursing emergency plans to enhance coping capacities in public health emergencies.

Response to the COVID-19 Epidemic: The Chinese Experience and Implications for Other Countries.

The ongoing outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) that occurred in China is rapidly spreading globally. China's bond and strict containment measures have been proved (in practice) to significantly reduce the spread of the epidemic. This was obtained through the use of emergency control measures in the epidemic areas and the integration of resources from multiple systems, including business, community, technology, education, and transportation, across the country. In order to better understand how China has managed to reduce the public health and economic impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic, this editorial systematically reviews the specific measures for infection prevention and control of the disease. The best practices for COVID-19 eradication in China provide evidence-based strategies that could be replicated in other countries.

Risk Prediction and Assessment: Duration, Infections, and Death Toll of the COVID-19 and Its Impact on China’s Economy

This study first analyzes the national and global infection status of the Coronavirus Disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19). It then uses the trend comparison method to predict the inflection point and Key Point of the COVID-19 virus by comparison with the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) graphs, followed by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, Autoregressive Moving Average model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors, and Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing to predict infections, deaths, and GDP in China. Finally, it discusses and assesses the impact of these results. This study argues that even if the risks and impacts of the epidemic are significant, China’s economy will continue to maintain steady development.